NFL Week 6 Predictions

Last week saw the end of an era. Dropping to 1-4 and a solid grip on the NFC North basement, the age of Favre and Green Bay's perennial contention for a Super Bowl is over. They field a defense that cannot stop anyone and face a schedule filled with strong offenses (Minnesota and Detroit twice each, Houston, St. Louis, Philadelphia, and Indianapolis and Tennessee already past). A Favre-lead passing attack is no longer strong enough to keep up with top tier offenses, and brings increasing risks of turnovers. This team will have to fight hard just to get to 8-8, and with their schedule, they just aren't strong enough. If Chicago was healthy, I would be predicting Green Bay in the basement the whole season. Since they are not, the Bear-Packer rivalry will play out this year for the worst team in the division.

I open with that to draw attention away from my 6-8 performance last week. I was 11-5 my first week, and kind of blasé about it. (In my week 2 predictions, I opened with, "Well, I went 11-5 my first week. Not too bad, not fantastic.") Oh for the good ole' days of 11 correct picks! All I can do is keep plugging away.

Onto this week.

Chargers @ Falcons
San Diego is one of the great surprises of the season, so far. The Falcons are another, though far less so. They were at least a playoff team two years ago. This is a classic matchup off offense (Chargers) against defense (Falcons). On the other side of the ball, the Falcon offense has been inconsistent, but they have been effective at times. The Charger defense plays like you would expect the Charger defense to play, i.e. pretty darn bad. Prediction: Falcons.

Dolphins @ Bills
The great battle of the winless. Both teams feature good defenses. The difference will be on offense. The Bills have Bledsoe, Moulds, and Henry. The Dolphins have, uh, somebody, probably. Prediction: Bills.

Redskins @ Bears
The Bears have been decimated by injuries, both to the offense and the defense. Washington has lost quite a bit, but the talent is there. Against a team of backups, they will not struggle. Prediction: Redskins.

Bengals @ Browns
The Browns are just bad. What spark they had on offense broke with Winslow's leg. The Bengals have struggled yet again this season. The defense is pretty bad, but the offense has shown some bright spots. Against this weak defense, the Browns will do nothing while the Bengal offense scores a couple of touchdowns. It won't be pretty, but the Bengals will take it. Prediction: Bengals.

Packers @ Lions
This matchup typically features one team at the top of the division and the other at the bottom. This meeting is no different. Well, it is different. For the first time in recent memory, it is the Lions who are the top team and the Packers who are at the bottom. As I have already noted, the Packer defense cannot stop anyone. The Lions have a diverse and reasonably good offense. (They are ranked 31st. I don't understand that. They've looked pretty good when I've seen them.) Prediction: Lions.

Chiefs @ Jaguars
Jacksonville got off to a fast start this year, led by a powerful defense. But in recent weeks against high octane offenses, that defense suddenly is not so good. Their offense has not done much of anything. Kansas City got off to a very slow start, the result of a continued bad defense and a sputtering offense. That offense seems to be getting back on track, and when it's on it's one of the best. If the Jags couldn't stop Houston, they won't stop KC. Prediction: Chiefs.

Seahawks @ Patriots
The big game of the week, and a potential Super Bowl preview at that, features arguably the best team in the NFC against arguably the best team in the AFC. No one said the defending Super Bowl champion's schedule should be easy. This game should have been a matchup of unbeaten teams, but Seattle blew a huge lead against the Rams in the closing minutes. There are a lot of possible explanations. I see it as a sign of the relative inexperience of Seattle. By and large, this is the first experience most of those players, on defense especially, have had with success. When they got such a big lead, I think their minds started drifting to this week's game and they forgot to put St. Louis away. The game features two well balanced teams, strong on both sides of the ball. Both teams are well coached, with both head coaches having lead teams to multiple Super Bowls. (Holmgren's ring came at the expense of the Patriots, whose defensive coordinator that year was Belichick.) New England has won a record 19 straight games, but they haven't been pretty this year. As in their last Super Bowl defense year (2002), they appear to be vulnerable to the run, and Seattle has a great running game. On the other hand, New England's offense is a well-oiled machine. Not exactly a juggernaut, but a unit that has taken the best the NFL has to offer and beaten it, for 19 straight games and 21 out of their last 23. They will be able to keep Seattle's juggernaut off the field for long stretches. New England's players are old pros at playing big games, but Seattle's are not. Prediction: Patriots.

49ers @ Jets
An unbeaten Jet team against a pathetic 49er team. Hmmm. This is easy. Prediction: Jets.

Panthers @ Eagles
Another conference title game rematch (the Patriots faced off against the Colts on opening night). The Panthers have struggled, at lead in part due to injuries all over the field. Their defense has been especially vulnerable. The Eagles are flying high as the only unbeaten team in the NFC. They now have a high-powered passing game, and their defense has not given up too many points. Prediction: Eagles.

Texans @ Titans
This one will be a shootout. Two high scoring offenses against two porous defenses. Some will say the Titans defense woke up last week. The Packers still managed to score 27 points on them, in desperation mode most of the game where the defense knew what they would be doing. What woke up last week was the Titan offense. Given that the Texans have been much more consistent on offense this season than Tennessee, I'm going for the upset. Prediction: Texans.

Broncos @ Raiders
Since taking over the starting job in Oakland, Kerry Collins has been a one-man interception machine. This week, he takes his show against one of the better secondaries in the NFL. Prediction: Broncos.

Steelers @ Cowboys
The Steeler offense is back to what it has always done best: running the ball. When they do pass, newbie QB Ben Roethlisberger has performed well. Dallas has struggled. Prediction: Steelers.

Vikings @ Saints
Another shootout game. Neither team has a defense to speak of. Looking at both team's speed bumps that pass as "defense", Minnesota does the better imitation of a real defense. Minnesota has the better and more consistent offense. Minnesota has the better coaching. Prediction: Vikings.

Bucs @ Rams
A few years ago, these teams met in the NFC title game. Both have won Super Bowls in the last five years. Both have fallen from their peaks, but the Bucs have fallen much farther. The Rams can still at least contend with the better teams in the league. The Bucs are on their third starting quarterback of the season. Prediction: Rams.

Last Week: 6-8
Season: 40-34